Power Without Legitimacy: 

Latin America’s Reaction to Washington’s Venezuela Gamble

 

Eduardo A Gamarra

Florida International University

 

When U.S. forces extracted Nicolás Maduro from Caracas in January 2026, the Trump administration portrayed the operation as proof that American power—and American respect—had been restored. Officials argued that the decisive removal of an authoritarian leader demonstrated renewed U.S. authority in the hemisphere and sent a clear message to adversaries and allies.

Public opinion data from Latin America and the Caribbean suggest a far more ambivalent verdict. Regional polling conducted in the weeks after the intervention reveals a crucial distinction: while many Latin Americans welcomed Maduro’s removal, they did not extend that approval to the United States or to Washington’s subsequent decision to co-govern Venezuela with Delcy Rodríguez’s regime. In short, the operation produced a favorable outcome without generating legitimacy.

This gap between outcome approval and leadership trust is central to understanding the intervention’s long-term effects.

Maduro’s Fall Was Popular—U.S. Leadership Is Not

By late 2025, Nicolás Maduro was among the hemisphere’s least popular political figures. Regional surveys placed his favorability in the low teens, reflecting widespread exhaustion with Venezuela’s humanitarian collapse, mass migration, and authoritarian governance. Against that backdrop, early post-intervention polls showed majority approval in several Latin American countries for Maduro’s arrest—particularly in Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, and parts of Central America.

But this approval was narrow and conditional. When polling shifted from asking whether Maduro’s removal was justified to whether respondents trusted the United States to manage Venezuela’s transition, support fell sharply. Across much of Latin America, confidence in U.S. leadership remained low, often in the teens or low twenties. In Mexico, favorable views of the United States dropped below 30 percent, and confidence in President Donald Trump fell into single digits. Canada, often treated separately but politically central to hemispheric perceptions, recorded an even steeper collapse, with approval of U.S. leadership reaching levels comparable to Canadian views of Russia.

The lesson is straightforward: Latin American publics can support the removal of an unpopular dictator while simultaneously rejecting U.S. authority as a legitimate architect of regional political order.

The Costs of Co-Governing With the Old Regime

Washington’s decision to work with Delcy Rodríguez has further eroded confidence. Regional polling does not indicate that Rodríguez is widely regarded as a transitional democrat or a neutral caretaker. Instead, she is seen as a core member of the same political elite that presided over Venezuela’s authoritarian breakdown.

Survey experiments conducted in several countries show that support for a U.S.-backed transition drops markedly when respondents are informed that senior figures from the Maduro regime remain in power. This effect is strongest among younger and urban respondents, who are more skeptical of elite continuity and more attuned to questions of institutional legitimacy.

The message from public opinion is unambiguous: removing a dictator does not legitimize those who governed alongside him or the external power that elevates them in the name of stability.

Trust in Trump Remains the Central Constraint

Broader global polling reinforces this regional picture. Pew Research Center’s 2025–2026 surveys indicate that confidence in U.S. leadership under Trump remains low worldwide, particularly in democratic regions. In Latin America, large majorities express little or no confidence in Trump to “do the right thing” in world affairs—levels significantly lower than during the Biden administration and comparable to those recorded during Trump’s first term.

Ipsos data point in the same direction. Since early 2025, the share of Latin Americans who view the United States as a “positive force in the world” has declined. Importantly, this shift is not driven by hostility toward Americans as a people. Favorability toward U.S. culture and society remains relatively resilient. What has eroded is confidence in U.S. intentions, predictability, and respect for regional autonomy.

This erosion is also reflected in comparative perceptions. In much of South America, China is now widely viewed as the leading economic power, and in several countries it is seen as a more reliable long-term partner—even among publics that remain wary of Beijing’s political model. The trend reflects disenchantment with American leadership rather than enthusiasm for Chinese governance.

 

Fear Is Not Respect

The Trump administration’s claim that the United States is now “more respected than ever” rests on conflating deterrence with legitimacy. Polling evidence suggests that Latin American publics do not interpret unilateral military action as proof of moral authority or leadership competence. On the contrary, surveys consistently show that unilateralism, even when it produces a desirable outcome, undermines trust.

This distinction matters because public opinion in Latin America constrains governments and shapes the durability of diplomatic alignments. Governments may cooperate with Washington for strategic or economic reasons, but public skepticism limits how far and how openly they can do so. Over time, that skepticism erodes influence—even when power is temporarily ascendant.

A Familiar Hemispheric Pattern

The reaction to Maduro’s extraction fits a long-standing regional pattern. U.S. interventions that prioritize speed, leverage, and transactional outcomes often secure short-term compliance but generate long-term legitimacy deficits. Polling data from 2025–2026 suggest that this pattern is repeating itself.

Latin American publics are not rejecting democratic change in Venezuela. They are rejecting the idea that such change can be imposed or managed by an external power that appears indifferent to process, legality, and inclusion. Co-governing with remnants of the Maduro regime has reinforced suspicions that Washington’s priority is control rather than democratization.

Implications for U.S. Strategy

If the United States seeks durable influence in the hemisphere, the lesson from regional polling is clear: power exercised without legitimacy yields diminishing returns. Respect is not measured by fear, compliance, or elite alignment. It is measured by trust, credibility, and perceived fairness—metrics on which the United States currently underperforms.

The extraction of Maduro may yet prove a turning point for Venezuela. But it has also become a stress test for U.S. leadership. Latin America is watching closely and judging cautiously. Unless Washington recalibrates toward multilateral engagement, genuine political inclusion, and a credible democratic transition, the legacy of this intervention may not be renewed respect but a deeper, more durable skepticism of American power.