How Miami-Dade Became a Fully Red County in 2024

 

Eduardo A. Gamarra,

Director, Latino Public Opinion Forum 

Professor of Politics and International Relations

Florida International University

 

The results of the 2024 elections sent a shockwave through Miami-Dade County, which swung entirely red for the first time in decades. This transformation was not an overnight shift but rather the result of a sustained, deliberate effort by Republicans to build a coalition that resonated with Miami’s diverse communities. Understanding how this shift happened reveals essential lessons about campaigning, community engagement, and the shifting priorities of Miami-Dade voters. I believe there are three primary reasons why Miami-Dade flipped red in 2024, along with critical insights into the broader implications of this political realignment.

1 . A Permanent Republican Campaign vs. Late-Stage Democratic Efforts

One of the defining factors behind Miami-Dade’s political shift is the stark contrast in campaign strategies between Republicans and Democrats. The GOP has executed a near-constant campaign in the county, establishing and maintaining a robust presence in Miami-Dade communities for at least the last three decades. Republican operatives and candidates have worked hard to forge relationships, host local events, and align their messaging with voters’ values and concerns. This steady engagement has allowed Republicans to build a narrative and establish trust, leading to a deeper, more consistent connection with the electorate.

Democrats, in contrast, have too often waited until the final months of an election cycle to start engaging with Miami-Dade voters. This late entry has disadvantaged them, as it’s difficult to counter a years-long narrative in a campaign's closing months or weeks. Democrats have relied on familiar talking points, assuming a lasting loyalty from historically Democratic groups, especially Hispanics, without dedicating the necessary time to rebuild connections. This lag in engagement left many voters feeling neglected or taken for granted, especially as Republicans continued to build on their existing ties.

2. Misreading Miami’s Political History and Complex Identities

Another reason for Miami-Dade’s redshift lies in the Democrats’ approach to Miami’s diverse communities, including Black, Haitian, Cuban, Venezuelan, Colombian, and Mexican voters. Miami-Dade is a county shaped by a unique political history that is inseparable from the experiences of immigrants who fled leftist regimes in Latin America. Democratic campaigns that embraced progressive labels and social justice narratives have struggled in Miami, where words like “socialism” and “progressive” are often viewed with skepticism or even fear due to traumatic experiences with leftist governments in their home countries.

Republicans capitalized on this disconnect by framing all Democrats as socialists, an accusation that resonated strongly with voters who associated leftist ideologies with political oppression, economic mismanagement, and corruption. Although Democrats are not socialists, the GOP’s ability to exploit these perceptions gave them a significant advantage. Without acknowledging these deep-seated fears and sensitivities, Democrats appeared out of touch with the lived experiences of these communities. At the same time, Republicans, in contrast, presented themselves as guardians against a perceived socialist threat.

FIU’s Latino Poll underscores this trend, revealing a significant flight of Latino Democrats toward the Republican Party in Florida. According to the poll, 15% of Latino respondents in Florida reported changing their party affiliation in the past year. Notably, 42.3% of those who switched parties moved from the Democratic to the Republican Party, signaling a decisive rejection of the Democrats’ message and a preference for Republican narratives that resonate more closely with their concerns. 

3. Candidate Selection and Local Ties

Candidate quality and local roots have been another significant factor in Miami-Dade’s political realignment. Democratic candidates have struggled to connect with the community partly because they often lacked deep personal ties to Miami-Dade. While they may be well-credentialed and articulate on national issues, many Democratic candidates have not cultivated the long-standing community ties that resonate with local voters. On the other hand, Republican candidates are often community fixtures with a personal history in Miami’s Cuban-majority neighborhoods.

The GOP’s candidates may have controversial views or unpopular stances on some issues, but their deep-rooted connections within the community earned them trust that transcends policy positions. For Miami-Dade voters, the choice often came down to electing a familiar figure versus a candidate seen as distant or unfamiliar. In a county that values community bonds, the Republicans’ ability to field candidates with local roots proved decisive.

A Broader Disillusionment with the Direction of the Country

Beyond these campaign strategies, Miami-Dade’s shift reflects a broader disillusionment with the country’s direction. Although the U.S. economy has shown positive indicators under the Biden administration, Miami-Dade residents face high housing costs, expensive groceries, and fluctuating gas prices. Many voters associate these economic challenges with the administration, even though local economic issues could be more directly linked to the Republican-led state government. Still, the perception of an economy in trouble weighed heavily on Miami-Dade voters.

Abortion also played a significant role in the election, with a notable gender gap emerging among Latino voters. Yet, it was clear that many Latino men and women felt comfortable voting for Trump while supporting Amendment 4. This complex dynamic underscores the nuanced political leanings of Miami-Dade’s Hispanic community, prioritizing issues based on personal values rather than strictly party loyalty.

 

Support for Deportation in a Hispanic County

Miami-Dade’s support for deportation policies highlights the nuanced perspectives within the county’s Hispanic electorate. Although the county is home to a significant number of undocumented residents, support for Trump’s stance on undocumented immigrants extends beyond a simple focus on law and order. Resentment over new migrants’ ability to obtain working papers relatively quickly, sidestepping the lengthy wait many older arrivals endured, fuels a sense of unfairness. For long-established Hispanic residents who went through years of bureaucratic hurdles to gain legal status, the recent influx of migrants obtaining work permits represents a perceived inequity.

Additionally, there is a view among some established Miami-Dade Hispanics that newer migrants are not “gente como nosotros”—or “people like us”—reflecting a divide rooted in social class. This distinction often stems from differing levels of economic resources and education. These factors contribute to support for deportation policies among many Miami-Dade Hispanics, illustrating that their priorities are not solely based on security but also on perceived fairness and alignment with personal values. For many, these policies represent a way to maintain the character and stability of their community, even within a county shaped by the immigrant experience.

In the final analysis, Miami-Dade’s shift to an entirely red county in 2024 reflects Republicans’ effective, long-term campaign strategy, Democrats’ failure to understand the county’s unique community dynamics, and its voters’ nuanced, often contradictory priorities.   


A summarized version appears in the Miami Herald https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article295483599.html 

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