The Latino Vote in 2024: Insights from FIU’s Latino Poll

Eduardo A. Gamarra PhD

Director, Latino Public Opinion Forum

Florida International University

 

Conducting the October 2024 edition of FIU’s Latino Poll as the director of the Latino Public Opinion Forum, with the collaborative effort of the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, the Adam Smith Center, the Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs, and the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, provided a chance to explore where Latino voters stand in this highly polarized election environment. This year, Latino voters face significant choices in a political landscape shaped by candidates with starkly opposing views—one of whom has made mass deportation, particularly of Latin Americans, a central feature of his campaign. The survey underscores that, while Latinos have the numbers to shape the election’s outcome, their political influence remains underutilized, giving some candidates leeway to take stances toward Latinos that would be unthinkable with other minority groups.

High Levels of Engagement—but a Challenge in Translating It to Influence

One of the first findings that stood out was the high level of engagement among Latino voters. Over 80% of respondents will likely participate in the 2024 election. This engagement matters because, as the nation’s largest minority group, Latinos have the potential to sway the election—especially in critical swing states. Yet, despite their size and high levels of engagement, Latino political influence has not fully matched their numbers.

This disconnect highlights a challenge: while Latino voters recognize the importance of participating, their political weight still needs to be more impactful than their numbers suggest. In an election where immigration policies directly affecting Latino communities are on the line, this gap between engagement and influence could leave Latino voices underrepresented in critical policy discussions. For Latinos to truly leverage their potential, this engagement must translate into sustained political influence that candidates must recognize and uphold.

Mixed Feelings on the Direction of the Nation Amid Polarization

The poll results revealed a split in Latino sentiment about the nation’s current direction, reflecting the broader polarization that permeates this election cycle. Nearly half of respondents expressed concern about the future, with younger Latino voters uncertain. This generational divide points to an underlying tension, as younger voters face different priorities from older generations, often focusing on social justice, economic stability, and climate change.

This ambivalence is particularly relevant given the climate of political messaging that targets Latino communities. Many young Latinos are skeptical, even cautious, about what the future holds for them in a polarized environment where one candidate’s platform includes mass deportation and strict border policies. Their concerns about the nation’s direction are not unfounded; they reflect a legitimate apprehension about how political decisions will directly impact their lives, families, and futures. This moment demands a more cohesive and assertive Latino political identity that challenges polarizing narratives and emphasizes Latino communities’ needs across generations and national origins.

Economic Concerns: A Central Issue with Broad Appeal

Economic issues—particularly inflation and job security—are at the top of the list for Latino voters, as reflected in the poll results. These concerns resonate deeply, especially among older voters and women, many of whom have felt the impact of rising living costs and uncertain job markets. The Latino community, often concentrated in essential sectors, has faced unique economic pressures, making inflation and job stability immediate priorities rather than abstract political talking points.

However, while economic stability is central to many Latino voters’ concerns, there is a risk that these issues will not receive adequate attention in policy discussions. In an environment where immigration policy and deportation rhetoric dominate, other pressing issues may be sidelined. For Latino voters, this disconnect is especially troubling, as economic stability is foundational to building a secure future. Ensuring that their financial concerns receive serious attention requires Latino voters to assert their influence and demand that candidates address these issues with the gravity they deserve.

Shifting Party Loyalties and the Rise of Independence

One of the most notable trends we observed was the growing political independence among younger Latino voters. While 48% of respondents identified as Democrats, with 59% feeling that the Democratic Party aligns with their values, there is a noticeable trend toward political independence among younger Latinos. Rather than adhering to traditional party lines, they are increasingly focused on issues rather than party loyalty.

This independence signals a shift within the Latino electorate, challenging the perception of Latinos as a reliably Democratic bloc. The trend also has implications for both parties: younger Latino voters are not bound to partisan labels and may vote based on specific policy stances rather than longstanding affiliations. In a polarized environment, this independence could leave Latino voters in a vulnerable position, potentially allowing candidates to ignore or take for granted the needs of this critical group. For Latinos to exercise their full potential as a political force, they may need to take a stronger, more unified stance on critical issues, signaling to candidates that their votes must be earned.

Divided Opinions on Immigration Policy Reflect a Diverse Electorate

While immigration remains a priority, the survey highlights how varied Latino perspectives are on this issue. About 39% of respondents support stricter border control measures, including a U.S.-Mexico border wall, while opinions on mass deportation are split. Younger and Democratic-leaning respondents tend to oppose harsher measures, showing that Latinos are far from monolithic on immigration. This divergence within the community leaves room for narratives that can pit Latinos against each other on immigration policy, often to the benefit of candidates who rely on divisive tactics.

For many Latinos, immigration is more than a policy issue; it is personal. However, the lack of a cohesive stance within the community on immigration can make it difficult for Latino voters to assert their needs effectively. In an election where one candidate has made mass deportation a cornerstone of his platform, the Latino community’s inability to project a unified voice on immigration allows for more extreme positions to gain traction. If Latino voters are to protect their interests, they may need to find common ground on immigration policy to counter-narratives that seek to marginalize or scapegoat Latino communities.

Kamala Harris Holds a Lead, But Gaps Remain

The poll found that Vice President Kamala Harris enjoys more robust support among Latino voters, with 56.9% favoring her over former President Donald Trump, who has 33.4% support. Support for Harris is exceptionally high among Latina women, reflecting concerns about healthcare, reproductive rights, and economic security. However, despite Harris’s lead, this support may not be enough to translate into guaranteed influence in shaping future policies. If Latino voters do not mobilize in a way that holds candidates accountable, even a clear preference for one candidate may not result in policy changes that reflect the community’s needs.

This is where Latino voters’ political clout could play a decisive role. The support Harris enjoys among Latino voters suggests that Latinos are inclined to back candidates who align with their values. However, to have their concerns addressed, the community must go beyond mere support. Latino voters must demand that their votes translate into substantive policy commitments on issues that matter most to them.

 

Celebrity Endorsements: Minimal Impact on Latino Decisions

The survey also reveals that celebrity endorsements have little influence on Latino voting preferences. Despite endorsements from figures like Bad Bunny and Taylor Swift, respondents overwhelmingly prioritize policy over personality. This finding suggests a level of political maturity within the Latino community that is not easily swayed by superficial appeals. Latino voters want concrete policies and solutions rather than flashy endorsements.

In a polarized environment, where Latino communities are being directly targeted in political rhetoric, this focus on substance over style is crucial. It reflects a demand for real solutions that address real issues, from economic security to immigration reform. Latino voters are signaling that celebrity endorsements cannot brush aside their priorities and that they expect policies that deliver meaningful change.

A Call for Latinos to Recognize and Leverage Their Political Power

Conducting this poll has underscored that while Latino voters are engaged and their numbers significant, their political weight still needs to catch up to what it could be. Despite being the largest minority group in the United States, Latinos are not “punching at their weight” politically. This underrepresentation gives some candidates the freedom to make controversial policy proposals targeting Latinos in ways they might not consider with other minority groups.

In many ways, these poll results serve as a call to action for Latino voters. With so much at stake in the 2024 election, Latinos must recognize their potential to influence the national agenda and start to punch at their weight. Achieving this will require greater unity on critical issues, more assertive political advocacy, and a demand for respect and representation. Only by fully leveraging their collective power can Latino voters ensure that their voices and votes are counted and that their interests are protected in the policies and decisions shaping the country’s future.

 

Access the poll at https://gordoninstitute.fiu.edu/research/latino-public-opinion-forum/fiu-latino-poll-national-survey-latino-v4.pdf.