Timing is Everything: Biden's Missteps in Florida Politics

Eduardo A. Gamarra

 

Biden's reelection campaign ignores two fundamental principles of politics. The first is that in politics, timing is everything. Equally important is the old adage by Thomas "Tip" O'Neill that "all politics is local." These principles are crucial in the delicate dance of political strategy and public perception.  Niccolò Machiavelli's insights in "The Prince" emphasize the importance of recognizing and seizing opportunities, suggesting that political success is determined by strategy and the ability to exploit favorable circumstances. A more contemporary view comes from Steven L. Taylor, whose "Outside the Beltway” articles repeatedly emphasize the critical role of timing in political strategy and decision-making. The Biden administration's recent actions in Florida, particularly concerning Cuban policy, exemplify a disregard for these insights, jeopardizing crucial Hispanic support in a state that could significantly influence the outcome of the 2024 elections at several levels.

 

In the past month, three significant missteps have further alienated Florida's Hispanics, particularly in the pivotal Miami-Dade County. First, the courtesy visit of Cuban officials to Miami International Airport, authorized by Washington without consulting local officials, has stirred local ire. Miami's Cuban community, with its deep-seated anti-Castro sentiment, perceived this as a blatant insult. The optics of Cuban officials being welcomed on what many consider a hallowed ground for Cuban exiles were poorly managed, exacerbating feelings of betrayal among local leaders and residents.

 

Second, the Biden administration's decision to remove Cuba from the list of countries not cooperating with anti-terrorism efforts has been seen as a misguided concession. For many Cuban Americans, this move undermines their painful history and struggles against a regime they view as oppressive and terroristic. While the administration might argue the broader strategic merits of this decision, the timing has undeniably intensified anti-Democratic sentiments among Florida's Hispanic voters.

 

Third, the announcement of support for Cuban private enterprises and small businesses. On the surface, this policy is a positive step toward empowering ordinary Cubans and fostering economic reform. However, the timing could be better. Instead of appearing as a genuine attempt to aid the Cuban people, opponents framed it as pandering to the Cuban government. This perception drives a wedge deeper between the Democratic Party and Cuban Americans, a key voter base that remains skeptical of any engagement with the Castro regime.

 

Machiavelli's metaphor of fortune as a river in Chapter 25 of "The Prince" is a powerful illustration of the importance of timing and preparation. He compares fortune to a river that, when flooding, can cause destruction but can be managed and prepared for during calm periods. This metaphor underscores the need for political leaders to adapt to changing circumstances and be prepared for unfavorable situations. Taylor also emphasizes that the timing of political actions can significantly influence their effectiveness and outcomes. His analysis highlights how strategic timing in legislative actions and electoral decisions can shape the political landscape, affecting public perception and political success.

 

Taylor's insights suggest that successful political strategy often involves recognizing and leveraging the right moments to act and anticipating the potential timing of opponents' actions. His perspective underscores that timing is about choosing the right moment to act and understanding how past events and future expectations shape the current political environment. The Biden administration's decisions, made in quick succession, suggest a tone-deaf approach to Florida's unique political landscape.

 

One could argue the benefits of each decision on their specific merits—supporting Cuban private enterprises, for instance, could be a positive move for economic liberalization. Yet, the political timing is catastrophic. These actions not only push Cuban Americans further into the Republican camp but also threaten to impact other races significantly, from the Miami-Dade mayoral contest to the crucial Senate race between incumbent Rick Scott and Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsell-Powell.

 

Washington's apparent disregard for local political dynamics is not unprecedented. The decision in April 2021 to remove the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC)  from the terrorism list similarly blindsided local officials and voters, indicating a pattern of decisions made with little regard for their regional political fallout. Such actions convey a troubling message to both Hispanic and non-Hispanic Democrats: Florida does not matter to the Democratic Party in 2024.

 

The repercussions of this perceived indifference could be severe. Florida, a battleground state with a diverse and influential Hispanic electorate, requires nuanced and timely political engagement. The Biden administration's recent blunders risk alienating a critical voter base, potentially ceding Florida to Republican control in crucial races.  That timing is everything rings more accurate than ever, and Tip O'Neill's reminder that all politics is local underscores the necessity of considering local contexts and sentiments. Machiavelli's insights remind us that successful political leadership often hinges on recognizing and acting upon the right opportunities at the right time. At the same time, Steven L. Taylor’s analysis highlights the importance of understanding the temporal dynamics in politics.

 

The Biden administration's recent policy decisions regarding Cuba, marked by poor timing, highlight a significant disconnect with Florida's Hispanic community. To regain lost ground, Democrats must prioritize local political considerations, demonstrating that Florida matters in the broader strategy of 2024. Failure to do so will have lasting repercussions, not just for the upcoming elections but for the party's standing in this crucial state for years to come.