Would a Trump Victory in November 2024 please Latin American 21st Century Socialists?

Eduardo A. Gamarra

 

The geopolitical chessboard is often set with pieces that do not move in predictable directions, creating paradoxes that, at first glance, appear almost unfathomable. Among these, the relationship between Vladimir Putin, a constellation of Latin American socialist states, and the political dynamics within the United States presents a particularly compelling study in contradictions and ironies.

Vladimir Putin has indeed fostered relationships with countries in Latin America such as Bolivia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. These nations, which align themselves with the ideology of 21st Century Socialism, have found in Russia a powerful ally willing to extend economic, military, and diplomatic support. This alliance is not merely a reflection of shared ideological underpinnings but a strategic counterbalance to U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere.

On the other side of this geopolitical equation is the United States, where the exile communities from these very Latin American countries often find themselves. Predominantly conservative, these communities have, in recent years, shown strong affiliations with the Republican Party and, more specifically, with Donald Trump. The irony, of course, is Trump's well-documented admiration for Putin, a stance that he maintained throughout his presidency and has continued to espouse in the lead-up to the 2024 elections. This admiration, reciprocated by Putin, creates a peculiar triangle of interests and allegiances. 

Despite this well-know admiration for Russia's leader, these Hispanic communities are likely to vote for Trump in November.  At the same time, their leadership continues to label Joe Biden and all Democrats as Socialists and therefore unworthy of their support.  

The question then arises: what do the Latin American socialist leaders think of this situation? It's tempting to speculate that they might view a Trump victory with a certain degree of favor, not because of any ideological affinity but due to pragmatic considerations. For instance, a newly re-elected Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, (I'm assuming he will win re-election in July) burdened by economic sanctions and international isolation, could potentially see advantages in a Trump administration. Trump's focus on immigration and his promises to deport undocumented immigrants, including Venezuelans, might paradoxically serve Maduro's interests. The prospect of negotiating the lifting of economic sanctions in exchange for accepting deportees could present a lifeline to Maduro's regime, offering a peculiar form of leverage over a U.S. administration.

This scenario, however, is fraught with complexities. The Latin American socialist leaders are aware that Trump's foreign policy could be unpredictable and his administration's stance on immigration could exacerbate the humanitarian crises in their countries. Furthermore, aligning too closely with a Trump-led U.S. could alienate other international allies and further isolate these countries on the global stage.

Moreover, the relationship between Putin and Trump, while personally cordial, does not erase the fundamental strategic competitions between Russia and the United States. The interests of Russia in Latin America are primarily aimed at undermining U.S. influence and gaining access to strategic resources and positions. Whether a Trump administration would willingly accommodate these objectives remains an open question.

In conclusion, the intersections of interests between Putin, Trump, and the Latin American socialist leaders encapsulate the multifaceted and often contradictory nature of international relations. While the surface ironies are evident, the underlying strategic calculations are complex and do not lend themselves to easy answers. What is clear, however, is that in the geopolitical chess game, the moves made by each player are driven by a blend of ideological affinities, strategic interests, and pragmatic considerations, making the outcome of this particular scenario anything but predictable.

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