Supporting Fragile Reformers: Why Washington Must Stand with Milei — and with Bolivia’s New President

By Eduardo A. Gamarra

As Argentines head to the polls this Sunday, the future of President Javier Milei’s bold economic plan hangs in the balance. Elected on promises to rescue Argentina from persistent inflation and political deadlock, Milei has inherited one of the country's worst financial crises in modern history. His “shock therapy” strategy—rapid austerity, deregulation, and pursuit of dollarization—aims to fix decades of fiscal mismanagement. But as the midterm elections approach, Milei faces a tough choice: without widespread political support, even the clearest stabilization plan may fail.

Milei’s problem is not with ideas but with governability. His coalition, La Libertad Avanza, holds only a minority in both chambers of Congress. Although he has some alliances with center-right groups, he still needs to negotiate with a hostile Peronist opposition that has blocked or even overruled his vetoes. Polls indicate a deeply divided electorate — one that praised his courage to take action but now faces the consequences of higher unemployment, reduced subsidies, and slower growth. In Argentina’s unstable democracy, austerity often clashes with social fatigue.

For the United States, this political fragility poses both a challenge and an opportunity. Washington, under President Trump, has promised roughly $20 billion in support for Argentina’s stabilization — a gesture that, though unprecedented, has been publicly linked to Milei’s midterm success. That conditionality is a mistake. If Argentina fails, it will not be because Milei lacks conviction, but because no reformer can succeed alone while fighting economic gravity and institutional resistance.

In times of crisis, the true test of partnership is not whether a government wins an election, but whether it is trying to do the right thing. Washington should therefore reaffirm its commitment to Argentina’s economic recovery, regardless of the immediate outcome of Sunday’s vote. To do otherwise would risk another collapse in South America’s second-largest economy, invite increased Chinese and Russian influence, and undermine the very market reforms the United States has long urged Latin American governments to pursue. Supporting Milei through this storm is not charity — it is sound geopolitical strategy.

The Argentine lesson goes far beyond Buenos Aires. In Bolivia, President Rodrigo Paz now faces a similarly challenging situation: depleted reserves, a worn-out system of state subsidies, and a deeply divided political scene. The new Bolivian government, like Milei’s, must implement difficult reforms to rebuild fiscal trust and attract investment. However, it will also face opposition from all sides — traditional left and right groups, organized labor, regional elites, and even disillusioned voters who once supported change.

If Paz is to succeed, he will need the same ingredient Milei now lacks: broad domestic and international support for stabilization and reform. The United States and its allies should not wait to see how the Bolivian political landscape shifts. Instead, they should be ready to provide technical, financial, and diplomatic assistance to ensure that the necessary but unpopular policies are sustainable. Abandoning fragile reformers during the most significant political risks would only guarantee failure—and, with it, a renewed populist backlash.

Latin America’s recurring crises reveal a clear truth: markets can adjust prices, but only politics can sustain reform. The upcoming days in Argentina will test whether a democratic government can endure the social cost of orthodoxy. The months ahead in Bolivia will reveal whether new leadership can act decisively before the crisis worsens. In both cases, U.S. involvement will be crucial.

Washington faces a choice. It can see these reformers as disposable, or it can support their success for the sake of hemispheric stability and strategic interests. Backing Milei today and Paz tomorrow isn't about ideology. It’s about giving democracy and healthy economies a real chance in Latin America.