Bolivia's Self-Coup: A Tactic That Worked but at What Cost?

Eduardo A. Gamarra, PhD

Professor

Department of Politics and International Relations

Florida International University

 

In an unprecedented move, Bolivia’s President Luis Arce has executed a self-coup, a maneuver that has thrust the nation into a crisis of historic proportions. For a country that has weathered significant political turbulence, including massive electoral fraud in 2019, the resignation of Evo Morales, and subsequent protests, this crisis stands out as the most severe of the 21st century. This statement bears considerable weight, especially given Arce’s history as the minister of economy under Evo Morales, whose 14-year rule he proudly cites as the pinnacle of Bolivia’s economic success.

 

Arce and Morales often reminisce about those "golden years" of Bolivian prosperity, marked by robust natural gas exports to Argentina and Brazil. These years saw significant economic growth and stability, which both leaders attribute to their strategic economic policies. However, the political and economic landscape has shifted dramatically since then. The camaraderie between Arce and Morales has deteriorated into a fierce political rivalry, with both leaders vying for re-election in 2025.

 

The Arce-Morales conflict has evolved into an epic battle, replete with drama, threats, and a self-coup. Arce’s decision to orchestrate a self-coup reveals the extent of his political desperation and the lengths he is willing to go to consolidate power. While successfully staving off immediate threats to his presidency, this move has plunged Bolivia into more profound uncertainty and turmoil.

 

This self-coup has exposed the fragile underpinnings of Bolivia’s political system. By circumventing democratic processes, Arce has undermined his government's legitimacy and set a dangerous precedent. This action has deepened political divisions and stoked fears of authoritarianism, casting a long shadow over Bolivia’s political future.

 

The consequences of this crisis are far-reaching. Economically, Bolivia was once seen as a credible leftist success story. The decline in natural gas exports and internal political instability have strained the nation’s economy. The once-celebrated economic policies of Arce and Morales are now under scrutiny as the current administration struggles to navigate the financial challenges exacerbated by political strife.

 

Politically, the battle between Arce and Morales has created a volatile environment. Both leaders are entrenched in their quest for power, employing tactics that increasingly undermine democratic norms. Arce’s four years in office have been characterized by the jailing of political opponents, the refusal to hold elections to renew the judiciary, and the concentration of power in the executive branch. The specter of violence looms large as their supporters clash and the political rhetoric becomes more incendiary. In the aftermath of the self-coup, Arce has jailed not only the general who stormed the palace as part of this clumsy tragic comedy, but we are likely to see dozens more arrested in the coming days as he looks for the culprits of the putsch that he ordered to remain in power.

 

For the Bolivian people, this crisis represents a betrayal of the democratic ideals that many had hoped would prevail following the tumultuous events of recent years. The self-coup has eroded trust in political institutions and leaders, leaving citizens disillusioned and apprehensive about the future.

 

As the 2025 elections approach, the stakes could not be higher. Bolivia stands at a crossroads, with its democratic integrity hanging in the balance. The outcome of the Arce-Morales rivalry will determine the nation’s leadership and trajectory for years. Will Bolivia emerge from this crisis with an electoral process that may lead to the election of a democratic successor, or will it descend further into authoritarianism and instability?

 

While Arce’s self-coup may have worked in the short term to secure his position, it has come at a significant cost to the possibility of reconstructing Bolivia’s democratic fabric. The ensuing crisis is a stark reminder of the dangers of power struggles and the fragility of democratic institutions. At stake now is the electoral process that should culminate in late 2025 with the election of a democratic successor to the nearly twenty years of authoritarianism under Arce and Morales.

 

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