How Miami-Dade Became a Fully Red County in 2024 Eduardo A. Gamarra, Director, Latino Public Opinion Forum Professor of Politics and International Relations Florida International University The results of the 2024 elections sent a shockwave through Miami-Dade County, which swung entirely red for the first time in decades. This transformation was not an overnight shift but rather the result of a sustained, deliberate effort by Republicans to build a coalition that resonated with Miami’s diverse communities. Understanding how this shift happened reveals essential lessons about campaigning, community engagement, and the shifting priorities of Miami-Dade voters. I believe there are three primary reasons why Miami-Dade flipped red in 2024, along with critical insights into the broader implications of this political realignment. 1 . A Permanent Republican Campaign vs. Late-Stage Democratic Efforts One of the defining factors behind Miami-Dade’s political shift is the stark contrast in c
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¿Se Llevará a Cabo una Deportación Masiva? Eduardo A. Gamarra A medida que Donald Trump se prepara para un posible segundo mandato, una de las promesas clave que sobresale es su compromiso de deportar a millones de inmigrantes indocumentados de los Estados Unidos. Las estimaciones de Trump y sus asesores, como el exdirector de ICE Thomas Homan y el asesor principal de políticas Stephen Miller, sugieren que podrían deportarse entre 2 y 25 millones de personas. Sin embargo, esta ambiciosa promesa plantea más preguntas que respuestas. ¿Qué tan factible es realmente una iniciativa de deportación masiva? A pesar de que existe un apoyo popular significativo para esta medida, incluido hasta el 40% de los hispanos según la Encuesta Latina de FIU, los desafíos prácticos y legales para ejecutar tal plan son inmensos. Identificando a los “Más Peligrosos” y Realidades Prácticas de la Deportación Mientras que la retórica de Trump se enfoca en eliminar a los “criminales peligrosos,” la ruta más expe
Will Mass Deportation Take Place? Eduardo A. Gamarra As Donald Trump gears up for a potential second term, a key promise that looms large is his pledge to deport millions of undocumented immigrants from the United States. Estimates from Trump and his advisors, like former ICE Director Thomas Homan and senior policy advisor Stephen Miller, suggest anywhere from 2 to 25 million people could be deported. This ambitious promise, however, raises more questions than it answers. Just how feasible is such a mass deportation initiative? Despite significant popular support for this measure, including from up to 40% of Hispanics, according to FIU's Latino Poll, the practical and legal challenges of executing such a plan are immense. Identifying the “Most Dangerous” and Practical Realities of Deportation While Trump's rhetoric often focuses on removing “dangerous criminals,” the most expedient route to achieve deportation numbers would likely target those who are already detained. In priso
The Latino Vote in 2024: Insights from FIU’s Latino Poll Eduardo A. Gamarra PhD Director, Latino Public Opinion Forum Florida International University Conducting the October 2024 edition of FIU’s Latino Poll as the director of the Latino Public Opinion Forum, with the collaborative effort of the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, the Adam Smith Center, the Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs, and the Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, provided a chance to explore where Latino voters stand in this highly polarized election environment. This year, Latino voters face significant choices in a political landscape shaped by candidates with starkly opposing views—one of whom has made mass deportation, particularly of Latin Americans, a central feature of his campaign. The survey underscores that, while Latinos have the numbers to shape the election’s outcome, their political influence remains underutilized, giving some candidates leeway to ta
A Dark Echo: How Scapegoating Immigrants is Shaping U.S. Elections and Undermining Democracy Eduardo A. Gamarra As we witness the 2024 American electoral campaign, it is impossible to ignore the parallels to one of the darkest chapters in human history. In a chilling echo of the tactics used by the Nazis, one political party in the United States has increasingly resorted to scapegoating immigrants—especially undocumented ones. Just as Adolf Hitler's regime blamed the Jews for every conceivable problem plaguing Germany, from economic crises to political instability, today, specific American political figures are directing fear and anger at immigrants, particularly those from Haiti, Venezuela, and other Latin American countries. They are portrayed as drug traffickers, rapists, murderers, gang members, and even as threats to public health and safety, despite the lack of evidence supporting such generalizations. The disturbing rhetoric recalls how the Nazis vilified Jews by labeling t
The Youth Vote and Latin America: A Missed Opportunity at Last Night's Debate Last night at Florida International University (FIU), we held a debate watch session sponsored by Pi Sigma Alpha and the Latino Public Opinion Forum. We've done this before, but this time was different. Typically, our turnout is modest—between 15 and 20 students, reflecting the general apathy that permeates political engagement among younger voters. But last night, something shifted. Crammed into SIPA 100 were approximately 90 students, a crowd representing the rich diversity of our student body and a palpable hunger to engage with the political moment. Before the debate began, we asked the students who they thought would win. The result was divided, with many still on the fence, reflecting the ambivalence that often marks younger voters. However, once the debate started, the engagement was undeniable. The students remained glued to their seats for the entire event. Ultimately, the vast majority said
Bolivia's Self-Coup: A Tactic That Worked but at What Cost? Eduardo A. Gamarra, PhD Professor Department of Politics and International Relations Florida International University In an unprecedented move, Bolivia’s President Luis Arce has executed a self-coup, a maneuver that has thrust the nation into a crisis of historic proportions. For a country that has weathered significant political turbulence, including massive electoral fraud in 2019, the resignation of Evo Morales, and subsequent protests, this crisis stands out as the most severe of the 21st century. This statement bears considerable weight, especially given Arce’s history as the minister of economy under Evo Morales, whose 14-year rule he proudly cites as the pinnacle of Bolivia’s economic success. Arce and Morales often reminisce about those "golden years" of Bolivian prosperity, marked by robust natural gas exports to Argentina and Brazil. These years saw significant economic growth and stability, which b